- A consensus exists among climate simulations → the Mediterranean region is identified as one of the most prominent “Hot-Spots” in future climate change projections
- Over land, the warming for RCMs is roughly within the range of 2.5 to 3.5°C in winter and 4 to 5°C in summer. Over the sea, the warming is roughly within the range of 2 to 3.5°
- A substantial future drying in all seasons and areas of the Mediterranean region is simulated, excepted in winter in the northern part
- The long-term drying of the Mediterranean will have important consequences for water resource in many Mediterranean countries
- At the end of 21st century, the average of the models predicts a significant increase in the loss of freshwater
- Ensemble average change in precipitation for the four seasons, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A1B scenario. Units are % of 1961-1990 value. Aerosols are not considered in those regional climate simulations (Giorgi and Lionell, 2008).
- Influence of aerosols is largely neglected in regional climate models for the Mediterranean even if they are able to significantly impact the radiative budget of the region